Hirshabeelle

Hirshabeelle is one of the federal member states of the Federal Republic of Somalia. It consists of two former regions: Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle. Its capital is Jowhar, which is also the seat of the Middle Shabelle region. The name 'Hirshabeelle' is a blend of the words 'Hiiraan' and 'Shabeelle'. It is the most recently formed member state apart from Benadir, and its political settlement remains contested.

Politics in Hirshabeelle revolves around three intertwined issues: a dispute over the division of power between the Hawaadle clan (predominantly in Hiiraan) and the Abgaal clan (predominantly in Middle Shabelle); the fight against al-Shabaab, for which these regions are among the main battlegrounds; and recurring flooding of the Shabelle River, which regularly displaces hundreds of thousands of people. Institutional researchers have described its formation as rapid and top-down, leaving behind weak institutions and unresolved public grievances.

Formation and institutions

Somalia's provisional constitution required that each federal member state consist of at least two administrative regions. For this reason, Hiiraan — where some Hawaadle leaders had demanded a separate member state — was merged with Middle Shabelle, and Hirshabeelle was created in October 2016. The dispute over the capital, contested between Beledweyne and Jowhar, was not fully resolved; Jowhar was chosen. In this early phase of formation, in the same year, 2016, the process was also tied to indirect federal elections, with the state assembly selecting members of the Upper House.

The Hirshabeelle House of Representatives consists of 99 members, elected according to a clan-based power-sharing formula. The president is elected by this assembly. The first president was Ali Abdullahi Osoble (2016–2017), followed by Mohamed Abdi Ware (2017–2020), and then Ali Abdullahi Hussein 'Guudlaawe', who received 86 votes in November 2020. The state's provisional constitution set the term of the president and the assembly at four years.

The Hiiraan dispute and power-sharing

The 2020 election triggered a prolonged dispute. Some Hawaadle representatives claimed that an unwritten agreement reserving the presidency for their clan had been broken, given that the capital remained in Jowhar. Hawaadle groups rejected the outcome, and the old demand for a separate 'Hiiraan state' resurfaced. Institutional analysis has stated that this dispute produced parallel administrations, weak tax collection, and institutional fragmentation. In 2026, talks between the federal president and Hawaadle leaders were reported to aim at having the next state president come from the Hawaadle clan. Since then, observers have noted that the state's provisional constitution does not reserve the presidency for any particular clan, and that such arrangements are political understandings rather than legal requirements.

Security and the fight against al-Shabaab

In August 2022, the federal government joined an uprising of clan militias (Macawisley) that began in Hiiraan, and joint operations against al-Shabaab were launched in the region. By early 2023, al-Shabaab had withdrawn from much of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle, but the campaign stalled, partly due to disputes over taxation and declining public support. In February 2025, al-Shabaab launched a coordinated offensive targeting Jowhar, Aden Yabaal, Cadale, Buulo Burde, and areas of Hiiraan; in April 2025 it recaptured Aden Yabaal, and it was reported to have taken control of key hubs such as Moqokori. Analysis from research institutions has described most of the gains made in 2022 as having since been reversed.

Floods, humanitarian conditions, and the 2026 election

Beledweyne is among the Somali cities most exposed to flood risk. In May 2023, the Shabelle River overflowed its banks, and OCHA reported that 22 people died and more than 450,000 were affected. In November 2023, humanitarian reports stated that up to 85% of the city was submerged in water, with nearly 250,000 people displaced. On the political front, the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC) prepared direct elections for the House of Representatives and district councils in Hirshabeelle. In August 2026, it named 12 districts to hold elections, six in Hiiraan and six in Middle Shabelle; the voting date, originally set for August 20, 2026, was postponed to September 30, 2026. Guudlaawe announced in June 2026 that he would run again.